A new NASA study published in Nature Food warns of significant impacts on major food crops by 2030 due to climate change. The research predicts a potential 24% decline in global maize (corn) yields
Key Findings:
- Rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and elevated CO2 levels from human activities are the driving forces behind these projected changes.
- Maize cultivation in tropical regions may become increasingly challenging due to rising temperatures.
- Wheat’s growing range could expand with warmer climates, potentially benefiting regions like Northern US, Canada, and parts of Asia and Africa.
Advanced Modeling for Accurate Projections:
- The study employed cutting-edge climate and agricultural models for simulations.
- Climate models from CMIP6 provided data on projected changes in Earth’s atmosphere under various emission scenarios.
- These climate model outputs were fed into 12 state-of-the-art crop models from AgMIP to simulate crop growth and response to environmental factors.
Focus on Climate Impacts:
- This research focuses on the direct impacts of climate change on crop yields.
- Economic factors, evolving agricultural practices, and adaptation strategies like breeding resilient crops are not included but are planned for future investigation.
Regional Impacts:
- Maize production in major breadbasket regions like North and Central America, West Africa, Central Asia, Brazil, and China could face significant declines.
- Wheat cultivation areas may expand in regions with temperate climates, including Northern US, Canada, parts of China and Central Asia, Southern Australia, and East Africa. However, these gains might plateau by mid-century.
Beyond Temperature: Complexities of Crop Growth:
- The models consider various factors like temperature, CO2 levels, rainfall patterns, heatwaves, and droughts to simulate future crop yields.
- Increased CO2 can boost photosynthesis and water retention in some crops like wheat, potentially leading to higher yields, but may affect nutritional content.
- Rising temperatures can shorten growing seasons and accelerate crop maturity, ultimately reducing total grain production.
Urgent Need for Action:
- Even in optimistic climate scenarios with ambitious emission reduction efforts, agriculture faces a new reality.
- The interconnectedness of the global food system means regional disruptions can have widespread consequences.